If you import goods, buy imported inputs, or sell to customers whose incomes depend on imported prices, you already know the feeling. You sell your stock at a price that seemed fair, and when you go to restock, the same goods cost far more. You have made sales all month and somehow have less money to buy the next batch than you started with.
That is currency risk, and for African small businesses it is one of the most dangerous risks of all, precisely because it is invisible until it is too late.
How much currencies can move
African currencies can move a long way in a short time, in both directions.
- The Ghanaian cedi fell by more than 55 percent against the US dollar between January and October 2022, one of the steepest declines of any currency in the world that year.
- According to the World Bank’s Africa’s Pulse report, the cedi lost nearly 24 percent of its value in 2024. Then, in the second quarter of 2025, it became the world’s best-performing currency, strengthening from around GHS 15.5 to about GHS 10.3 to the dollar in a matter of months.
- In 2026 it turned again, falling around 11 percent by late July as companies scrambled for dollars.
- Nigeria’s naira had depreciated by about 43 percent by August 2024, according to the World Bank, pushing up the cost of imported goods and squeezing businesses that depend on them.
The African Development Bank expected 21 of Africa’s 54 currencies to weaken against the dollar in 2025. For a small business, the lesson is simple: you cannot predict the next move, so you must build a business that survives either direction.
The most common mistake: pricing on what you paid
Most small traders price goods on what they cost to buy: cost plus a margin. When the currency is stable, that works. When it is falling, it quietly destroys the business, because the money you collect is no longer enough to replace what you sold.
Consider a trader who buys phone accessories for GHS 10,000 and sells them for GHS 12,500 over a month, a healthy-looking 25 percent margin. If the cedi weakens 15 percent during that month, restocking the same goods now costs about GHS 11,500. The real margin on that cycle has shrunk from GHS 2,500 to around GHS 1,000, before rent, transport or wages.
Price on replacement cost
The fix is a mindset shift: price on what it will cost you to replace the goods, not what you paid for them. In practice:
- Before you set or review prices, check what your supplier would charge you today.
- When the currency is moving fast, review prices weekly instead of monthly.
- Keep a simple table of your top products, their current replacement cost and your selling price, so you can see immediately when margins are shrinking.
This can feel uncomfortable, especially when customers notice prices rising. But a business that keeps selling below replacement cost is not being kind to customers; it is slowly closing.
Other ways to protect yourself
Turn stock over faster
The longer goods sit on your shelf, the longer you are exposed. Smaller, more frequent orders reduce how much of your money is caught in a currency swing. Identify slow movers and clear them before they tie up cash.
Match your money to your costs
If most of your costs are in dollars, holding all your savings in local currency leaves you exposed. Where it is legal and practical, some businesses keep part of their working capital in a foreign currency account at a licensed bank to match their import bills. Speak to your bank about what is allowed where you are, and avoid unlicensed dealers.
Negotiate with suppliers
Ask suppliers whether they will hold a price for a set period, invoice in local currency, or offer part-payment terms. Long, reliable relationships make these conversations easier. For some imported inputs, a regional supplier elsewhere in Africa may offer more stable terms than one priced in dollars.
Build a price-change buffer into contracts
If you supply businesses or institutions on contracts, include a clause that allows prices to be reviewed if the exchange rate moves beyond an agreed level. Large companies do this as a matter of course. Small suppliers should too.
Watch the direction, not just the level
Currencies also strengthen. When the cedi rallied in 2025, importers who had stocked up at weak rates found competitors selling the same goods more cheaply. Falling fast can hurt, but so can being the last to lower prices. Keep an eye on the trend and be ready to move either way.
Think of currency like the weather
You cannot control the exchange rate any more than you can control the rain. But no farmer blames the weather for failing to plan. Price on replacement cost, keep stock moving, match your money to your costs, and review regularly. Those habits will not stop the currency from moving, but they will stop it from quietly eating your business.
Sources
- International Trade Administration, “Ghana Currency Depreciation” (2022): trade.gov
- Modern Ghana, “Exchange Rate Appreciation in Ghana” (2025), citing the World Bank Africa’s Pulse report and Reuters: modernghana.com
- Businessfront, “Once Africa’s best-performing currencies, the naira and cedi are now hitting a rough patch” (2026): businessfront.com
- allAfrica, “Naira Among Worst-Performing Currencies in Africa”, citing the World Bank (2024): allafrica.com
- BusinessDay, “Naira, cedi among currencies to slip in 2025, says AfDB” (2025): businessday.ng
